Sunday, 31 August 2008

Impact of Inflation on Financial Statements and IAS 29


Impact of Inflation on Financial Statements

Fixed Assets under historical Cost accounting – Since the fixed assets are valued at historical cost (in most countries), the assets are stated at a much lower figure than their current replacement costs. This makes the company vulnerable to takeover bids and leads to lower valuations for the shareholders.

Depreciation – Since the assets are undervalued, consequently the depreciation on such assets are also undervalued. This leads to distortions in the make or buy decisions of the assets. This consequently overstates the profit of the enterprise.

In case of inflation, the cost of raw materials and goods purchased for re-sale are rising. Under the cost concept only cost of purchase is taken to the Income Statement. Generally, in case of Inflation, the fair value is greater than the cost and this difference between the cost and the fair value of such goods is also taken to the Income Statement as Holding Gains. Consequently the profit is again inflated as actually the company would be required to replace the inputs at higher costs.

Cash, Cash equivalents and Receivables lose their value in terms of Purchasing Power and the real values of liabilities do not get reflected. The increase in interest rate of loans do not get reflected in the financial statements.

Profits and Return on Investments are overstated as Revenues are recorded at increased price levels while costs are not.

The financial statements reflect a very high growth in sales value, profits, capital additions etc. The actual growth rates of these items can be assessed only after necessary monetary adjustments.


The Regulatory Aspect under IFRS – IAS 29 - FINANCIAL REPORTING IN HYPERINFLATIONARY ECONOMIES
To cater to the needs of an Inflation Accounting, the IASB came out with an Accounting Standard. Entities operating in hyperinflationary economies, and those preparing IFRS consolidated financial statements that include a foreign entity operating in a hyperinflationary economy, must take full account of the effects of inflation using a ‘current purchasing power’ approach under IAS 29. This requires an understanding of the economic concepts underlying the standard and a complex series of procedures and reconciliations to ensure accurate results.
Objective of IAS 29
The objective of IAS 29 is to establish specific standards for enterprises reporting in the currency of a hyperinflationary economy, so that the financial information provided is meaningful.

Restatement of Financial Statements

The basic principle in IAS 29 is that the financial statements of an entity that reports in the currency of a hyperinflationary economy should be stated in terms of the measuring unit current at the balance sheet date. Comparative figures for prior period(s) should be restated into the same current measuring unit. [IAS 29.8]

Restatements are made by applying a general price index. Items such as monetary items that are already stated at the measuring unit at the balance sheet date are not restated. Other items are restated based on the change in the general price index between the date those items were acquired or incurred and the balance sheet date.

A gain or loss on the net monetary position is included in net income. It should be disclosed separately. [IAS 29.9]

The restated amount of a non-monetary item is reduced, in accordance with appropriate IFRSs, when it exceeds its the recoverable amount. [IAS 29.19]

The Standard does not establish an absolute rate at which hyperinflation is deemed to arise - but allows judgement as to when restatement of financial statements becomes necessary. Characteristics of the economic environment of a country which indicate the existence of hyperinflation include: [IAS 29.3]

  • The general population prefers to keep its wealth in non-monetary assets or in a relatively stable foreign currency. Amounts of local currency held are immediately invested to maintain purchasing power;
  • The general population regards monetary amounts not in terms of the local currency but in terms of a relatively stable foreign currency. Prices may be quoted in that currency;
  • Sales and purchases on credit take place at prices that compensate for the expected loss of purchasing power during the credit period, even if the period is short; and
  • The cumulative inflation rate over three years approaches, or exceeds, 100%.
  • IAS 29 describes characteristics that may indicate that an economy is hyperinflationary.
However, it concludes that it is a matter of judgement when restatement of financial statements becomes necessary.

When an economy ceases to be hyperinflationary and an enterprise discontinues the preparation and presentation of financial statements in accordance with IAS 29, it should treat the amounts expressed in the measuring unit current at the end of the previous reporting period as the basis for the carrying amounts in its subsequent financial statements. [IAS 29.38]

Disclosure
Gain or loss on monetary items [IAS 29.9]
The fact that financial statements and other prior period data have been restated for changes in the general purchasing power of the reporting currency [IAS 29.39]
Whether the financial statements are based on an historical cost or current cost approach [IAS 29.39]
Identity and level of the price index at the balance sheet date and moves during the current and previous reporting period [IAS 29.39]

To know more about IAS 29, visit the links below:

Understanding IAS 29
IAS 29 - A Research paper

Friday, 29 August 2008

Flat Rate of Interest vs Effective Rate of Interest


Flat rate of interest

Very often banks offer flat rate of interest to their consumers on products like credit cards and personal loans or other smaller loans. Flat rate of interest sounds good because the rates quoted by the banks are lower than the reducing balance interest rates and an average consumer understands the flat rate very easily.

The simplest explanation - when you take a flat rate loan, you are asked to pay interest on the whole amount (principal) during the whole tenure of the loan even when the principal is gradually reducing during the term of the loan. Suppose you take a loan of 1 lakh rupees at 15% flat rate of interest for 1 year. The EMI or equal monthly loan installment that you pay consists of both interest and a part of the principal. So, as you pay the EMIs, the principal goes on reducing. However, even as the principal is reducing, you are still paying the interest on the whole amount (1 lakh rupees).

Flat rate of interest is the interest charged on the full amount of a loan throughout its entire term and commonly known as a 'pre-determined' credit charge. The flat rate takes no account of the fact that periodic repayments, which include both interest and principal, gradually reduce the amount owed. Consequently the effective interest rate is considerably higher than the nominal flat rate initially quoted.

In the US, all lenders have to state the effective rate to borrowers; contracts based on flat rates of interest, already uncommon by the mid-1990s, were prohibited under the uniform credit Code legislation in the US.

Anyone confronted with a flat rate of interest should remember: a rough rule is that 9 per cent flat equates to about 17 per cent effective per annum, ie, double the flat rate less one per cent, although this varies with the term of the loan.


let me give u a snapshot of how the Flat rate works vis-à-vis the Effective Rate of Interest

Loan amount – 100000

Tenure – 12 months

Effective Interest Rate p.a. [Flat Rate p.a.] –

10.00% [5.50%]

12.00% [6.62%]

15.00% [8.31%]

20.00% [11.16%]

Now lets see what happens when the tenure changes

Loan amount – 100000

Tenure – 24 months

Effective Interest Rate p.a. [Flat Rate p.a.] –

10.00% [5.37%]

12.00% [6.49%]

15.00% [8.18%]

20.00% [11.07%]

So next time, when you are offered a Flat rate of Interest and it looks attractive, be wise, and recalculate. Its much more than what you can imagine.

A few links should be useful:

http://jaldiloanwala.com/Emi.asp
http://www.iimb.ernet.in/iimb/microfinance/Docs/Interest%20Calculation/InterestClassRoom.doc

Wednesday, 20 August 2008

Structured Products

Gone are the days when the investors had the option of investing only in Equity markets, and if there was any diversification needed, they had the option of Debt, Bullion, Commodities and at the very best, Real Estate. But we all have known the constraints of investing in them. High investment, low liquidity in the markets and long term lock in periods. Then came Mutual Funds which are still considered amongst the best options for investors.

Let me talk about "Structured Products", the secret of how the investment managers (Yes, of Mutual Funds also) manage to generate high returns or at least, maintain the returns.
Investment managers across the globe continuously strive towards designing products that suit various investor requirements. Asset managers in the developed markets (now penetrating in emerging markets like India and China) have been offering structured products across asset classes like equities, debt, forex and commodities for a long time now. However, in India, the pace of growth of these products have been slow due regulatory constraints and awareness/acceptance amongst the investors.

What are structured products?
A structured product is generally a pre-packaged investment strategy which is based on derivatives, such as a single security, a basket of securities, options, indices, commodities, debt issuances and/or foreign currencies, and to a lesser extent, swaps. The variety of products just described is demonstrative of the fact that there is no single, uniform definition of a structured product. A feature of some structured products is a "principal guarantee" function which offers protection of principal if held to maturity. For example, an investor invests 100 dollars, the issuer simply invests in a risk free bond which has sufficient interest to grow to 100 after the 5 year period. This bond might cost 80 dollars today and after 5 years it will grow to 100 dollars. With the leftover funds the issuer purchases the options and swaps needed to perform whatever the investment strategy is. Theoretically an investor can just do this themselves, but the costs and transaction volume requirements of many options and swaps are beyond many individual investors.
As such, structured products were created to meet specific needs that cannot be met from the standardized financial instruments available in the markets. Structured products can be used as an alternative to a direct investment, as part of the asset allocation process to reduce risk exposure of a portfolio, or to utilize the current market trend.


An example
The CPPI/DPI (Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance / Dynamic Portfolio Insurance) type of structured product.
In this type of a structure, initially a fixed portion of proceeds could be invested in underlying equity-based instruments. In the event of weak returns, the manager who is actively managing the structure, pulls some portion of that capital from equities and assigns it to a zero coupon bond whose function is to deliver the investor his principal at maturity. the investment is structured so there is usually enough capital to afford buying the guarantee (the zero coupon bond) throughout the life of the investment, thus assuring a return of capital.

Monday, 11 August 2008

ECB vs FCCB


This is in response to the queries I received on whether ECB or FCCB is more convenient/liberal/less regulated.

For guidelines on each of them, please refer to the links attached in the respective articles.

FCCB

http://www.icai.org/icairoot/publications/complimentary/cajournal_nov05/703-708.pdf.

ECB

http://www.icai.org/icairoot/publications/complimentary/cajournal_may04/p1216-19.pdf

As regards which is more convenient, it always depends on the company raising funds.

Historically, companies prefer ECBs over FCCBs. The RBI data for the month of December 2007 showed only 7 of 44 companies raising funds through FCCBs automatic route and all 7 companies preferring the ECB over FCCB through approval route.

http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/ECB/pdfs/83662.pdf

Government has said that it is contemplating relaxing norms governing external commercial borrowings (ECBs) to enable Indian corporates access higher foreign capital at low cost. Besides, a review is underway to remove restrictions on foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs). The Govt is planning (though since quite a long time now) to amend FEMA and make the necessary changes in the guidelines so as to enable the Indian corporates raise substantial borrowings from overseas.

However, it has been made clear that the government would not allow unrestricted interest rate regime in ECBs in view of East Asian meltdown, caused by high interest rates and short duration of such borrowings in late ‘90s as Cost of borrowing is a concern for the Govt.

I hope at least this answers our initial questions. Please read through the links above while I prepare to answer more elaborately with updated information.

after all its all about ~ improving perfection ~

Sunday, 10 August 2008

Value at Risk (VaR)

Look for any security on BSEINDIA.COM or NSEINDIA.COM and u'll find this term called VaR mentioned.

I always wondered what it is. I just had a vague idea that its a measure of risk. And then, as I m crazy about finding out things that interest me, I ventured to quench my thirst to know what is VaR. Read on and am sure u'll find it interesting too. Lots of technicals though, but for analysts/CAs/Portfolio Managers/Risk managers and those in the capital markets... its imperative to know what is VaR.

Introduction to VAR
Define VAR
VAR summarizes the predicted maximum loss (or worst loss) over a target horizon within a given confidence interval.

Consider a trading portfolio. Its market value in Rupees today is known, but its market value tomorrow is not known. The investment bank holding that portfolio might report that its portfolio has a 1-day VaR of Rs 1.7 million at the 95% confidence level. This implies that under normal trading conditions the bank can be 95% confident that a change in the value of its portfolio would not result in a decrease of more than Rs 1.7 million during 1 day. This is equivalent to saying that there is a 5% confidence level that the value of its portfolio will decrease by Rs 1.7 million or more during 1 day. A 95% confidence interval does not imply a 95% chance of the event happening, the actual probability of the event cannot be determined.
The key point to note is that the target confidence level (95% in the above example) is the given parameter here; the output from the calculation ($Rs 1.7 million in the above example) is the maximum loss (the value at risk) at that confidence level.

How can I compute VAR?
Assume you hold Rs.100 million in medium-term notes. How much could you lose in a month? As much as Rs.100,000? Or Rs.1 million? Or Rs.10 million? Without an answer to this question, investors have no way to decide whether the return they receive is appropriate compensation for risk.

To answer this question, we first have to analyze the characteristics of medium-term notes. We obtain monthly returns on medium-term bonds from 1993 to 2005.
Returns ranged from a low of -6.5% to a high of +12.0%. Now construct regularly spaced ``buckets'' going from the lowest to the highest number and count how many observations fall into each bucket. For instance, there is one observation below -5%. There is another observation between -5% and -4.5%. And so on. By so doing, you will construct a ``probability distribution'' for the monthly returns, which counts how many occurrences have been observed in the past for a particular range.

For each return, you can then compute a probability of observing a lower return. Pick a confidence level, say 95%. For this confidence level, you can find on the graph a point that is such that there is a 5% probability of finding a lower return. This number is -1.7%, as all occurrences of returns less than -1.7% add up to 5% of the total number of months, or 26 out of 516 months. Note that this could also be obtained from the sample standard deviation, assuming the returns are close to normally distributed.

Therefore, you are now ready to compute the VAR of a Rs.100 million portfolio. There is only a 5% chance that the portfolio will fall by more than Rs.100 million times -1.7%, or Rs.1.7 million. The value at risk is Rs.1.7 million. In other words, the market risk of this portfolio can be communicated effectively to a non-technical audience with a statement such as:

Under normal market conditions, the most the portfolio can lose over a month is Rs.1.7 million
.

What is the effect of VAR parameters?
In the previous example, VAR was reported at the 95% level over a one-month horizon. The choice of these two quantitative parameters is subjective.
(1) Horizon
For a bank trading portfolio invested in highly liquid currencies, a one-day horizon may be acceptable. For an investment manager with a monthly rebalancing and reporting focus, a 30-day period may be more appropriate. Ideally, the holding period should correspond to the longest period needed for an orderly portfolio liquidation.
(2) Confidence Level
The choice of the confidence level also depends on its use. If the resulting VARs are directly used for the choice of a capital cushion, then the choice of the confidence level is crucial, as it should reflect the degree of risk aversion of the company and the cost of a loss of exceeding VAR. Higher risk aversion, or greater costs, implies that a greater amount of capital should cover possible losses, thus leading to a higher confidence level. In contrast, if VAR numbers are just used to provide a company-wide yardstick to compare risks across different markets, then the choice of the confidence level is not too important.

How can we convert VAR parameters?
If we are willing to assume a normal distribution for the portfolio returns, then it is easy to convert one horizon or confidence level to another.
As returns across different periods are close to uncorrelated, the variance of a T-day return should be T times the variance of a 1-day return. Hence, in terms of volatility (or standard deviation), Value-at-Risk can be adjusted as:

VAR(T days) = VAR(1 day) x SQRT(T)

Conversion across confidence levels is straightforward if one assumes a normal distribution. From standard normal tables, we know that the 95% one-tailed VAR corresponds to 1.645 times the standard deviation; the 99% VAR corresponds to 2.326 times sigma; and so on. Therefore, to convert from 99% VAR (used for instance by Bankers Trust) to 95% VAR (used for instance by JP Morgan),

VAR(95%) = VAR(99%) x 1.645 / 2.326.

How can I use VAR?
This single number summarizes the portfolio's exposure to market risk as well as the probability of an adverse move. It measures risk using the same units as the bottom line---Rupeess. Investors can then decide whether they feel comfortable with this level of risk.
If the answer is no, the process that led to the computation of VAR can be used to decide where to trim risk. For instance, the riskiest securities can be sold. Or derivatives such as futures and options can be added to hedge the undesirable risk. VAR also allows users to measure incremental risk, which measures the contribution of each security to total portfolio risk. Overall, it seems that VAR, or some equivalent measure, is an indispensable tool for navigating through financial markets.

Monday, 4 August 2008

Foreign Currency Convertible Debt (FCCD)


A type of convertible bond issued in a currency different than the issuer's domestic currency. In other words, the money being raised by the issuing company is in the form of a foreign currency. A convertible bond is a mix between a debt and equity instrument. It acts like a bond by making regular coupon and principal payments, but these bonds also give the bondholder the option to convert the bond into stock.

These types of bonds are attractive to both investors and issuers. The investors receive the safety of guaranteed payments on the bond and are also able to take advantage of any large price appreciation in the company's stock. (Bondholders take advantage of this appreciation by means warrants attached to the bonds, which are activated when the price of the stock reaches a certain point.) Due to the equity side of the bond, which adds value, the coupon payments on the bond are lower for the company, thereby reducing its debt-financing costs

The ICAI came out with a detailed description on FCCD in its journal in 2005.

Click below and have a look for details
http://www.icai.org/icairoot/publications/complimentary/cajournal_nov05/703-708.pdf.

External Commercial Borrowings (ECB)

External Commercial Borrowings (ECB)
External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) include bank loans, suppliers' and buyers' credits, fixed and floating rate bonds (without convertibility) and borrowings from private sector windows of multilateral Financial Institutions such as International Finance Corporation.

Euro-issues include Euro-convertible bonds and GDRs.

In India, External Commercial Borrowings are being permitted by the Government for providing an additional source of funds to Indian corporates and PSUs for financing expansion of existing capacity and as well as for fresh investment, to augment the resources available domestically. ECBs can be used for any purpose (rupee-related expenditure as well as imports) except for investment in stock market and speculation in real estate.

External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) are defined to include
commercial bank loans,
buyer’s credit,
supplier’s credit,
securitised instruments such as floating rate notes, fixed rate bonds etc.,
credit from official export credit agencies,
commercial borrowings from the private sector window of multilateral financial institutions such as IFC, ADB, AFIC, CDC etc.
and Investment by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in dedicated debt funds

Applicants are free to raise ECB from any internationally recognised source like banks, export credit agencies, suppliers of equipment, foreign collaborations, foreign equity - holders, international capital markets etc.

REGULATOR
The department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India with support of Reserve Bank of India, monitors and regulates Indian firms access to global capital markets. From time to time, they announce guidelines on policies and procedures for ECB and Euro-issues.

ECB GUIDELINES
The important aspect of ECB policy is to provide flexibility in borrowings by Indian corporates, at the same time maintaining prudent limits for total external borrowings. The guiding principles for ECB Policy are to keep maturities long, costs low, and encourage infrastructure and export sector financing which are crucial for overall growth of the economy.

The ECB policy focuses on three aspects:
Eligibility criteria for accessing external markets.
The total volume of borrowings to be raised and their maturity structure.
End use of the funds raised.


The ECB and the FCCB (Foreign Currency Convertible Bond) are amongst the most preferred ways of raising money theae days, specially when the markets are down and companies are not sure of being able to raising enough funds through IPO and FPOs. Moreover, these involve lesser costs than raising equity.

Source: banknetindia.com

For more info on ECBs, please refer to the link below [the ICAI's article on ECB - a bit old one though]

http://www.icai.org/icairoot/publications/complimentary/cajournal_may04/p1216-19.pdf