The Loch Ness Monster Recession

Economists differ on their views of the shape of the recession. Is it a single dip, i.e. a V-shaped recession, or a double dip, W-shaped recession? Most economists seem to agree on the latter now. I'm not a formally trained economist, I am a Physics and Maths graduate who has spent my working life in various branches of engineering and now apply myself mostly to predicting future technology and its impacts, thinking about the nature of many input forces as part of that process. Since economic forces have an enoprmous impact on the future, and the economy is a topic of interest in its own right, I do certainly have my own views about the workings of the economy, and am very happy to make general predictions about its future, formally trained or not. So, just for the record, so that no-one claims that no-one saw it coming this way, I think the recession will actually follow a series of dips and recoveries, and is therefore a 'Loch Ness Monster' recession (the monster is often portrayed as a sea serpent with its body dipping in and out of the water).

The reasons I think it will follow this shape are as follows:


1 the UK will have to reduce expenditure dramatically, but this won't happen for a few years for political reasons, so the economy will show the corresponding dip later
2 The rise of China and India will continue, and will cause big rise in demand for basic commodities. China especially is already trying to assure its own access to the commodities it needs. Prices will rise due to this demand, but again, the major effects have yet to be felt. Give it another 5 years and the price of meat, fish, oil, metals will rise a lot. With more of our incomes taken up providing for basic survival, there will of course be less for discretionary spend.
3 Taxes will have to rise a lot to pay for holes in pensions provision, but this won't really affect us until several years time, so a dip will happen then.
4 Rises in travel costs due to environmental targets (however inappropriate) will make it harder to do business, and also directly undermine tourist industry. This dip will be a short term one and will coincide with the second dip widely predicted elsewhere.
5 intergenerational conflict will become significant due to young people blaming their parent's generation for the problems they will face. Many of the most talented will emigrate to other lower-tax countries, leaving the UK with the old and those with less earning capability.

These forces will act in parallel, but their curves will be quite different. In a background of (hopefully) economic growth stimulated by improving technology and the markets it brings, they will result in a series of dips superimposed on a slow underlying recovery. Hence, a Loch Ness Monster recession.